2018 Hurricane Season Forecast To Be Above Average
Not the sort of news we were hoping for
The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs from 1st June to 30th November. With the season less than two (2) months away, the Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies, reminds residents to begin to take the necessary preparedness measures early to ensure that their homes, businesses and families remains in a state of readiness. The 2017 Hurricane Season – with the passage of Harvey, Irma and Maria – reminds us how devastating and destructive storms can be and how important it is to be prepared.
According to the latest preliminary predictions, by hurricane researchers at the Colorado State University (CSU) on Thursday 5th April, 2018, the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be slightly above-average this year. The experts have cited a “relatively low likelihood of significant El Niño” conditions as a main contributing factor.
Cover image credit @CSUEngineering
For 2018 the Atlantic #hurricane season is forecast to be slightly above (normal) with 14 (12) tropical storms, 7 (6) hurricanes, 3 (2) of them major hurricanes. Accumulated Cyclone Energy of 130 (90). Via @ColoradoStateU’s @philklotzbach at #ntwc2018 pic.twitter.com/egwsEAwZNv— John Morales (@JohnMoralesNBC6) April 5, 2018
In total, the CSU team predicts there will be fourteen (14) named storms; seven (7) predicated to become hurricanes and three (3) predicted to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or above).
They explained that the development of El Nino patterns are likely to make a difference this season. Meteorologists Philip Klotz Bach and Michael Bell at CSU said, “El Niño tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic, tearing apart hurricanes as they try to form.”
As a result, CSU hurricane researchers believe this season’s activity will be approximately 135 percent of the average season. Last year’s hurricane activity – which included major storms such as Harvey, Irma and Maria – was two and a half times greater than average. To develop hurricane forecasts, CSU used 60 years of data; referencing sea surface temperatures, vertical wind shear levels, sea level pressures, El Niño conditions and other factors.
NHC's official #MARIA report cements its place as 5th-strongest #hurricane in U.S. history. Was an honor to punch its core:— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) April 9, 2018
1. Labor Day Storm 1935 (FL): 160 kt
2. CAMILLE 1969 (MS): 150 kt
3. ANDREW 1992 (FL): 145 kt
4. San Felipe 1928 (PR): 140 kt
5. MARIA 2017 (PR): 135 kt pic.twitter.com/afNUBM5otj
While the CSU team said their predictions provide “a best estimate” of what to expect, coastal residents should take precautions to protect themselves.
Lookout for further updates from CSU on 31st May, 2nd July and 2nd August 2018.